Time in a Bottle

In this segment, Dr. Albert Bartlett uses an illustration from the Boulder, Colorado city council to show how steady growth leads to catastrophic outcomes.

When he was making this video (1999), city council members were discussing what would be an acceptable population growth rate. One figure considered was 5% per year. 70/5% means that the population would double every 14 years. If that growth rate were to continue, Boulder, in one lifetime would be about the size of Los Angeles.

As he points out, you couldn't fit LA into the Boulder valley. Obviously, Boulder's growth will stop.

The only question is will we be able to stop it while there's still some open space or will we wait until it is wall to wall people and we're all choking to death?

He put up this interesting headline from the Denver Post:

Colorado has a three percent growth rate...that's like a third world country with no birth control.

Dr. Bartlett says:

We send foreign aid--family planning assistance--to countries that have smaller population growth rates than Colorado has.

Dr. Bartlett uses this example to show how short-sighted we are in regards to growth and how even city council members do not understand basic arithmetic. Then Dr. Bartlett talks about bacteria.

Imagine bacteria growing steadily in a bottle. They double in number every minute. At 11:00 a.m. there is one bacterium in the bottle. At 12:00 noon the bottle is full.

It has a doubling time of one minute. It is in a finite environment of one bottle. He asks three questions:

1) What time was the bottle half full?

Answer: 11:59.

The bacteria double every minute. Second question:

2) If you were an average bacterium in the bottle at what time would first realize that you were running out of space?

Before he gives the answer he reminds us that this type of steady growth is the centerpiece of the entire global economy.

To answer question two, he provides this table:

Table II. The last minutes in the bottle.
11:54 a.m.	1/64 full (1.5%)	63/64 empty
11:55 a.m.	1/32 full (3%)	31/32 empty
11:56 a.m.	1/16 full (6%)	15/16 empty
11:57 a.m.	1/8 full (12%)	7/8 empty
11:58 a.m.	1/4 full (25%)	3/4 empty
11:59 a.m.	1/2 full (50%)	1/2 empty
12:00 noon	full (100%)	0% empty

He returns to the Boulder argument. Someone wrote a letter saying that growth in Boulder is not a problem because there is 15 times the amount of space that Boulder has already used.

So what time is it in Boulder? The answer? Four minutes before 12, when the bottle is 1/16 full.

Suppose that at 11:58 some of the bacteria realize they are running out of space. So they launch a great search for new bottles. They search offshore on the outer continental shelf, in the overthrust belt and in the arctic, and they find three new bottles.

This is an amazing find. They have four times as many bottles. Surely, this will give them a sustainable society, says Bartlett. Right? Question 3:

3) How long can the growth continue as a result of the discovery of three new bottles; this quadrupling of the proven resource?

Answer:

At 11:59 the bottle is half-full.
At 12:00 the bottle is full.
At 12:01 two bottles are full.
At 12:02 all four bottles are full.

Game over. Dr. Bartlett tells us that we don't need any more arithmetic than that to address what we hear from the experts that we can go on growing and increasing our consumption of fossil fuels because we will discover new resources to meet the requirements.

Turning to energy, Bartlett quotes former energy secretary, James Schlesinger:

In the energy crisis, "we have a classic case of exponential growth against a finite resource." (Time Magazine, April 25, 1977).

How much oil is there? When do we use it? In the 1960s and 1970s the consumption was 7 percent per year. Doubling time = 10 years.

This percent growth did not continue because OPEC raised its prices. But say it did continue. How long would 7% consumption last?

In 1973 we consumed 20.4 billion barrels of oil. 334 billion barrels since oil was discovered approximately 100 years before that, leaving us with 1765 billion barrels. That is data. The rest is projection of 7% per year.

Year	Barrels Produced	Cumulative Use	Amount Left
1973	20.4	334	1765
1981*	35.1	559	1540
1991*	69.1	1078 (half gone)	1022
2001*	135.9	2100	0

Had we continued at 7%, in 1981 we would have had three times as much left in reserve than we would have used in all of history. A lot of oil. From our bacteria in a bottle example, what time is it when you have three times as much reserve compared to what was used? Two minutes before twelve.


Doubling usage every ten years (7% increase in production per year) would have depleted the oil in two decades.

The segment concludes at this point. We will pick this up next time.



Questions for discussion:
1) Where are we now in real numbers of barrels of oil?
2) What is our percentage rate of growth?
3) What time is it?

Zero Population Growth Will Happen

In this next installment, Dr. Bartlett continues with examples of the exponential function. He talks about world population.

On July 7, 1986, the news reports indicated that the world population had reached 5 billion people growing at a rate of 1.7% per year.

That doesn't sound like much. You calculate the doubling time 70/1.7% = 41 years.

In 1999, the world population had reached 6 billion, but growing at 1.3% per year. Doubling time = 53 years. However, Earth adds 80 million new humans every year.

Dr. Bartlett extrapolates this modest 1.3% per year growth to the future.

If this modest 1.3% per year could continue, the world population would reach a density of one person per square meter on the dry-land surface of the earth in 780 years. And the mass of people would equal the mass of the earth in just 2400 years.

Dr. Bartlett points out that we smile at that. We know that won't happen. Why? Because, eventually zero population growth is going to happen. We can debate whether or not we like it. Regardless, it will happen. Today's high birth rates will drop and low death rates will rise far sooner than 780 years.

Then he asks, "What sort of options are available if we want to address the problem?" He offered this

Table of Options

Increase Populations Decrease Populations

Procreation	Abstention
Motherhood	Contraception Abortion
Large Families	Small Families
Immigration	Stopping Immigration
Medicine Public Health Sanitation	Disease
Peace	War
Law and Order	Murder Violence
Scientific Agriculture	Famine
Accident Prevention	Accidents
Clean Air	Pollution (smoking)
Ignorance of the Problem

The items on the left are the good things we do that lower the death rate. But anything we do that lowers the death rate makes the problem worse. The things on the right are those things that are going to solve the problem. We have a dilemma. Those things on the left we regard as good and sacred. Those things on the right (murder, war, famine, disease) we do not want.

Now, the point. We eventually are going to reach zero population growth. Nature will choose from those items on the right. Dr. Bartlett says:

We don't have to do anything except be prepared to live with whatever nature chooses from that right hand list. Or we can exercise the one option that is open to us: choose something from the right hand list that we can go out and campaign for.

Nature is already choosing. AIDS is one example. Famine and war are others. He asks an interesting question: where is education on this table? Is it on the right hand column or left? He thinks that so far, it is on the left. Education has not addressed this problem.

He doesn't mention religion, but I'll let you be the judge.

It appears to me that the best item on the right would involve decreasing birth rates. It seems that we ought to be campaigning for contraception and family planning and reorient our values so that every child born is a wanted child.

Or we can let nature take its course. And it will.

The Meaning of Life, Part 9

"Sustainable growth is an oxymoron, because if you just look at the arithmetic of steady growth, the numbers become astronomically large in modest periods of time, so you can't have steady growth."
--Dr. Albert Bartlett


On the sidebar, I have two resources of interest.

1. Chris Martenson's Crash Course.
2. Dr. Albert Bartlett's Arithmetic, Population and Energy.
   

The first is a helpful summary of economics, energy, and the environment. It is done in a series of twenty lectures of varying length. To watch it all will take about three hours. Martenson is an interesting guy.

This is from his web page:

First of all, I am not an economist. I am trained as a scientist, having completed both a PhD and a post-doctoral program at Duke University, where I specialized in neurotoxicology. I tell you this because my extensive training as a scientist informs and guides how I think. I gather data, I develop hypotheses, and I continually seek to accept or reject my hypotheses based on the evidence at hand. I let the data tell me the story.

It is also important for you to know that I entered the profession of science with the intention of teaching at the college level. I love teaching, and I especially enjoy the challenge of explaining difficult or complicated subjects to people with limited or no background in those subjects. Over the years I’ve gotten pretty good at it.

After I watched the first couple of segments, I skipped to number 20 What Should I do? He doesn't provide particulars, but he offers a commonsense way of evaluating your present situation so you can make decisions and begin the process of coming to terms with what we very well could be facing in these next twenty years.

After that, I went back to watch the rest of the presentation. Because it is divided into easy to navigate topics, you can go back particular areas. His website has many resources for you to discover more about an issue.

If you haven't heard of this guy before, I am glad to offer his crash course to you as a Christmas present as he has given it to us and someone gave it to me.

It may not be helpful for you. You may reject his information. You may accept his information but decide it is too bothersome and depressing and you would rather hope for a miracle. Or you may need to take time for it to sink in and take root. Whatever you decide, you will be making a wager. He explains that in chapter 20.

The second resource is a 70 minute lecture in eight nine-minute youtube videos by Dr. Albert Bartlett. You can read a transcript of Arithmetic, Population, and Energy as well. Dr. Bartlett taught physics at the University of Colorado. The lecture on YouTube is one he gave to college students. He offers information on population, exponential growth, and energy. It isn't hard to follow.

Again, you can argue with it and reject it. You can accept it and get depressed, or you can accept it and say, "Time for an adventure." Here is a nineteen minute video interview with Dr. Bartlett at the 2005 ASPO Conference (Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas). The real issue he is addressing is human population.

There are many, many resources regarding these issues on the internet. Martenson is a good place to start as he has taken the last four years to research and present this information in an easy to follow format. Bartlett's lecture has stood the test of time. He continues to present and update the lecture he first gave in 1969.

These two resources offer good basics. Again, Martenson's Crash Course takes a little over three hours. Bartlett's video takes a little over an hour. From there, we can explore all over. It is possible that you are way ahead of me on this and can offer resources and wisdom of your own. I welcome that.

What do I hope to get from blogging about this?

I have some beliefs. They include:

1. We are in for massive change within the next few decades, in my lifetime.
   
2. Our institutions (education, government, media, corporate, church) are in denial. Apparently, it is in their short term interest not to educate the public about what we are facing.

Those are two of my beliefs. I might be wrong. I could end up looking very foolish if none of the things Martenson, Bartlett, and others describe come to pass. It is possible that the invisible hand of economics and technology will allow us to consume and grow as we have been doing indefinitely. If I am wrong about my beliefs, I'll eat a crow and will gladly do so.

I have three more beliefs.

1. Human beings are creative, compassionate, hopeful, and industrious. When they know what they are facing, they can deal with it.
2. One hundred years from now, our descendents will enjoy a sustainable relationship with Earth if our generation doesn't destroy it because of ignorance and fear.
3. The institutions I named above may implode or become severly weakened before they can help. It is wise for us to think in terms of lifeboats, both individually and socially.
   

Lifeboats are the commonsense actions we can take individually and collectively so that we can be supports rather than burdens or helpers for those who will need help.

I also have some spiritual beliefs and practices. I know this might sound spooky for my atheist friends, but I will try to put it in secular terms.

1. Lightheartedness. Here is a wonderful definition: Lightheartedness is the ability to keep your sense of humor as you face life’s most difficult challenges. It is a spiritual quality associated with inner strength, faith, and the ability to face life’s adversities with a positive mental attitude. Finally, it’s a sign of courage and the ability to inspire others when, together, you are facing a difficulty that is overwhelming.
2. Deep compassion. This is the quality that allows us to feel with others--to be present to those who are suffering. The Bodhissatva who refuses nirvana in order to serve others is a good example. Of course, Jesus is an example of compassion in the Christian tradition.
3. Non-violence. This will be especially important as governments beat war drums over resources. It is also a personal discipline that refuses to harm in word or action other living things.
4. Detachment. Also called letting go, this discipline allows us to accept change and not cling to old habits, beliefs, or entitlements. In the Jewish tradition it refers to making no idols out of impermanent things or ideas.
   
5. Hope. This is the discipline to work toward a future we will personally never experience. It is to live and work for one's descendents seven generations in the future. It allows us to deal with reality while keeping us from self-concern for our own survival.
6. Awe and Delight. Related to lightheartedness, this practice of being aware opens us to the joyous, unexpected, marvelous existence all around us.
7. Creativity. Synergy may be another word for this. This allows for the possibility that we have strengths yet untapped and that together we can produce outcomes greater than the sum of our individual efforts.
   

Whew. Wordy today. Give a preacher a blog and the night never ends. I know I offer this a lot. But I never get tired of The Galaxy Song!