Shuck and Jive

Tuesday, December 07, 2010

Holston!?!? ....... lost.... But!

We gave it a college try and we improved our record. However, amendment A was defeated in Holston Presbytery today, 27-45. Last time the vote was 24-68. Five spoke in favor and five against before the time was up. It wasn't just that 23 no votes from last time didn't show up today. A lot of folks who would have voted in favor didn't show up either. We have had some weather. That affirmative voting percentage did improve remarkably.

I am confident that Amendment A will pass nationwide. So I am taking all the good karma from this improvement at Holston and sending it on to the other presbyteries! We are a conservative presbytery and it was good to see people get up and speak eloquently in favor of amendment A. Everyone knows the writing is on the wall.

I did get to deliver my "leaked" speech. Special thanks to the other speakers, Shane, Pat, Deven, and Jim. You were awesome!

Carrying on...


  1. Thank you for speaking up on this issue. Your remarks were sincere and powerful. Please keep up the good work, you inspire us.

  2. Maybe you've seen that we have (I think) our first flip of the new voting season, Eastern Oklahoma approved 10-A.

  3. Thank you Jim!

    @Alan--that was good news. All silver linings must have a dark cloud. Lake Huron went the other way. But we are just beginning. We can expect a lot of back and forth. I felt good about my presbytery. The arguments in favor were far superior to arguments against and new people spoke and a number of folks talked to me afterward. Spirit is moving.

  4. The showing in Holston is consistent with the predictive statistical model I put together to track this issue. So was the showing at East Oklahoma. Unfortunately it didn't predict the loss at Lake Huron, although it was close to the cusp. So far, all of the presbyteries that I considered to be battleground/swing presbyteries have voted the way the model predicted (EOP was one of them). The model has consistently predicted though that 10-A will pass with at least 90 presbyteries voting in favor.

  5. I like that, Kattie. I suppose with presbyteries that have small numbers and are close (like Lake Huron), it depends upon who moves in and out. I think, over all, the movement is toward inclusion. I do like the 90 presbyteries in favor--now it depends on folks getting to the meeting!

  6. Kattie,

    Do you have this model posted somewhere?

  7. John,
    I haven't posted it anywhere, but I might try to reformat it and link it to my blog page. I'll let you know if I do, but don't expect it real soon, I'm pretty busy these days. Maybe I'll have some time in a couple of weeks.

    Someone once asked me why I haven't become an Actuary. I answered, "Why, I'm already a Presbyterian". :-)

  8. John,
    I've posted the latest results of my 10-A vote prediction model on my blog page. Just follow the link at the top of the page. Feel free to link to it if you wish. I'll try to keep it fairly up to date, but I don't guarantee accuracy.

  9. Thanks Kattie! My your prophecies prove true!