Shuck and Jive

Saturday, February 05, 2011

East Iowa Yes and We Are Neck and Neck

East Iowa Presbytery continued their advocacy for justice by voting in favor of amendment A, 76-36-2, according to CovNet. Nice, nice work!

Big news. The presbytery votes are tied at 23. First time we have ever been that close in our years of voting. Keep it going!


  1. Sorry to rain on your parade, but San Joaquin voted no 14-34, so we're still down one.

    The good news is that my model is still predicting we win 91-82. In addition, the model is 4 for 4 in predicting shifts from no to yes. I'm getting excited!

  2. But a drizzle, the parade marches on!
    I like your predictions!

  3. John, the best part is that the model predicts that Sacramento (Viola's home base) will flip. She really has her work cut out for her.

    I know, I know, I need to repent of that guilty pleasure.

  4. Apparently, I'm not keeping up very well.

    Question: How many total have to flip in order for this 10-A to pass? For some reason I'm thinking 7. Also, what is our total positive flip to date? I see +3. If my numbers are correct, then we only need 4 more flips, correct?

  5. @Kattie She made a post about you. I hope she uses the phrase at the presbytery meeting that she used in the post: "...if 10-A wins in the denomination, if the demons of hell spend a few nights (and they will be nights) cavorting about..."

    That is sure to convince the moderates.

    @irreverence Last time it was 78-95. Need 87 to win so 9 flips net would be needed I think. So far, I think we have had four flips positively and one negatively for a net of +3.

  6. "the demons of hell spend a few nights (and they will be nights) cavorting about"


    I suspect hysterical melodramatic writing like that is what happens when someone reads too much of that Twilight nonsense.

    But hey, the only thing worse than being talked about, Kattie, is not being talked about. :) If the BFTSs are writing posts about you, you know you must be doing something right.

  7. @John,


    Viola has a bad habit of misreading and getting things wrong.

    She says that I predict the outcome to be 91-82. I've never said any such thing. I've been very careful about how I state it. I have a computational model that currently predicts the outcome to be 91-82. This is all subject to change as the data comes in. I've even pointed out that some of the assumptions in use by the model are indefensible. I don't have a crystal ball and I don't make predictions. I've kept my personal feelings about the outcome to myself.

    She seems to think I don't understand about the Sheep. That's just one more thing she doesn't know about me.

  8. Well Alan,

    If she's having to resort to picking on me, then we might rightly assume she's getting desperate.


    I need to correct something I stated earlier. I said I never stated that I made a prediction. Although it is true that I don't personally believe I own the prediction, I have not been as careful as I thought concerning stating it.

  9. "the demons of hell spend a few nights (and they will be nights) cavorting about..."

    Dear Lord! How much projecting can one woman do! Maybe, oh, THIS MUCH:

  10. @Katie
    I hate to be the harbinger of bad news, but your model has a hiccup. Blackhawk was listed as a fail, but...

    ...IT PASSED!!!

    Woo hoo!

    (So I've heard through the grapevine. I missed the meeting.)

  11. That's Okay, I'm not worried. Blackhawk was projected to be close, only down by 2. I'm glad they went the extra mile. There will probably be a couple of surprises the other way too. Because of Blackhawk, the model now projects the outcome to be 92-81.